Chiefs vs. Colts odds, line: 2019 NFL divisional round picks, playoff predictions from advanced model on 16-6 roll

Arrowhead Stadium is the site of the first game of the NFL divisional schedule when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday. It’s been snowing steadily ahead of kickoff, with grounds crews working throughout the day to clear Mother Nature’s wrath ahead of kickoff. The latest Kansas City weather shows over a 50 percent chance of more snow throughout the game. The Chiefs took the top overall seed in the AFC with their 12-4 overall record this season, but perhaps no team in the NFL is as red-hot as the Colts, who won 11 of their last 12 entering Saturday. The spread has been on the move, with Kansas City sitting at -4.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Colts odds, down a half-point from the opener. The total has also dropped as kickoff approaches. In fact, it’s at 55 after opening at 56 as the public reacts to the forecast. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Colts picks of your own, be sure to check out the NFL playoff predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on Additionally, it hit all four NFL against-the-spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Colts vs. Chiefs (stream live on fuboTV). We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it has also generated a strong point-spread pick that’s hitting well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine. 

The model has factored in that since the Chiefs lost running back Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams has filled in admirably. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns in limited action. Fellow back Spencer Ware (hamstring) reportedly won’t play on Saturday despite carrying a questionable tag, but Williams is more than capable of shouldering the load.

Regardless of who’s in the backfield, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the engine that drives Kansas City’s offense. In just his second pro season, the MVP front-runner tossed a remarkable 50 touchdowns and nearly 5,100 yards, second-best in the league.

But just because Kansas City has plenty of weapons doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Colts spread on Saturday.

The model knows the Colts might be an example of a team that benefited from playing on Wild Card Weekend. Fresh off a playoff-clinching victory over the Titans to wrap up the regular season, Indy rolled into Houston and dominated their division rivals in a convincing 21-7 victory that was never in doubt. 

Now with plenty of momentum, Andrew Luck and company take a short, 90-minute flight to Kansas City to battle a team that hasn’t had a competitive game since Week 16. Several key Chiefs haven’t played much, if at all, in the late weeks of the season, so Indianapolis will look to get off to a hot start against a potentially rusty Kansas City squad. And K.C. could be without running back Spencer Ware (hamstring) and safety Eric Berry (heel), who appear to be on the wrong side of questionable.

Who wins Colts vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread you need to be all over Saturday, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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