NFL odds, picks for Divisional Round Sunday: Proven computer model backing Over in Saints vs. Eagles

Sunday’s NFL divisional round playoff matchups will set the field for next week’s conference championship games, and two entertaining contests decide who gets to play for a trophy next week. The Patriots are four-point favorites over the Chargers in New England to kick off the action on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET, while the Saints are eight-point favorites at home over the Eagles in the latest NFL odds. That game kicks off at 4:40 p.m. ET and is the weekend’s only rematch of the season, with the Saints winning the first matchup 48-7 in Week 11. However, before you assume that result will repeat itself, or look to make any other NFL picks for Sunday, be sure to check out the 2019 NFL playoff predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on Additionally, it hit all four NFL against the spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has examined the latest divisional round NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top divisional round NFL picks the model recommends: go over (51.5) when the the Saints take on the Eagles.

The key in this matchup is that these are two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, with the Saints ranking 29th and the Eagles ranking 30thin that category. And with so many playmakers available on the outside for both teams, this should turn into the track meet that many are expecting. 

Nick Foles has helped the Eagles offense reach its full potential down the stretch, with Alshon Jeffery heating up with 24 catches for 383 yards and a score in the last four games. The Saints shouldn’t have a great answer for that connection while the Eagles will have similar issues with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. 

Considering that both teams have solid run defenses, it will be no surprise to see the running game abandoned on both sides, and for all that passing action to add up to extra possessions for both sides, which is why the over cashes in well over half of SportsLine’s simulations this week.

Another one of the divisional round NFL predictions from the model: The under (47.5) hits when the Chargers visit the Patriots on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET. 

The Patriots vs. Chargers forecast has been a major topic of conversation this week. While the potential for snow has subsided, frigid temperatures are still expected at kickoff in New England. That doesn’t bode well for the Chargers, who play their home games in California where it’s in the 60s. In fact, in Philip Rivers’ last three starts in cold weather (less than 40 degrees), he’s completed just 55.3 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and six interceptions. 

New England’s defense is also substantially better at home, allowing just 17.9 points compared to 24.0 outside of Gillette Stadium. Plus, the under has hit in four of New England’s last five home games. The model projects that trend to continue on Sunday, as the Under hits in almost 55 percent of its simulations.

The model also has a strong NFL against the spread picks for both divisional round games on Sunday, and is calling for a top Super Bowl contender to go down hard, shaking up the NFL playoff picture forever. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the NFL’s divisional round Sunday schedule? And which top Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds for Sunday below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4, 47.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8, 51.5)

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